摘要
天津市水资源短缺情况日益严重,水资源总量不足以承担全市用水需求,对外调水的依赖性日益增大.针对这一现状,分析其用水特点,使用系统动力学软件Vensim,建立2005年到2020年的水资源可持续利用模型.模型包括人口、经济、生态环境、水资源4个相互作用的子系统.运行模型得到预测结果,结果显示2020年天津总需水量将达到42.55亿m3,水资源供需缺额为7.686亿m3,运用计算机仿真模拟技术,模拟5种不同方案下的水资源利用趋势,通过分析对比得出水资源可持续利用的最优方案:节约用水,调整产业结构,提高污水处理技术与海水淡化技术.通过提高水资源利用率和减少水资源的浪费与污染,可有效缓解水资源短缺现状,加快实现水资源的可持续利用.
Water shortage in Tianjin is getting more and more serious.The total supply of water resources is insufficient to meet the demand and thus Tianjing has become increasely dependent on the water diverted from other areas.Based on the current situation and the characteristics of water use in Tianjing,this article established a model to predict the sustainable utilization of water resources from 2005 to 2020 by using Vensim,a system dynamics software.This model is composed of four interacting subsystems：population,economy,ecological environment and water resources.The prediction results were obtained by operating the model.The results show that the total water consumption will reach 4.255 billion m3 in 2020 and the gap between supply and demand of water resources is 768 million m3.Furthermore,in order to find out the optimal solution for the sustainable utilization of water resource,the water resource utilization trends were simulated under five different programs by using computer simulation technology.The comparison of the water resource utilization trends under the five different programs indicates that the optimal solutions include saving water,industrial restructuring,improving sewage treatment technology and seawater desalination technology.The shortage of water resource can be effectively alleviated and the sustainable utilization of water resource can be boosted by improving the utilization rate of water and reduce water wastage and pollution.
出处
《华中师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2014年第1期106-111,共6页
Journal of Central China Normal University：Natural Sciences
基金
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项课题资助项目(2012ZX07308-001-06)
关键词
水资源
可持续利用
系统动力学
仿真模拟
天津市
water resource
sustainable utilization
system dynamics
simulation
Tianjin
