摘要
基于2001—2011年广州市生产性服务业的相关数据,运用灰色关联分析对影响广州市生产性服务业的主导因素进行了识别,在此基础上运用协整分析及脉冲响应分析法对主导因素与生产性服务业之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:政府作用和工业发展水平是影响广州市生产性服务业发展的主导因素,政府的作用在初期会迅速带动该产业的发展,但其影响的力度逐渐减弱,工业发展水平则与生产性服务业的发展具有长期的均衡关系,能促进生产性服务业稳步增长,但具有一定的滞后性。据此提出提高广州市生产性服务业的建议。
Based on the actual data of Guangzhou producer services from 2001 to 2011, the paper uses gray correlation method to identify the dominant factors of the producer services in Guangzhou, and then using VAR model and impulse response analysis method to research the relationship the dominant factors with the producer services.The results show that, in various factors, the government function and the level of industrial development are dominant factors for the producer services in Guangzhou. In initial stage, the government function will rapidly promote the development of the producer services, but the power of its impact gradually weakened. The level of industrial development and the producer services has a long-term equilibrium relationship, and it can promote a steady rise in the producer services, but has certain hysteresis. According to the results of this study, some suggestions have been proposed.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第1期89-93,共5页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41071078)
广东省高校人文社会科学基地重大项目(09JDXM79017)
教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(11YJAZH016)
