摘要
为提高高层建筑火灾后果预测精度和准确率,在分析高层建筑火灾演变机理的基础上,确定系统组成要素,构建高层建筑火灾的贝叶斯网络(BN)演变模型。利用联合概率公式,预测火灾后果。以上海"11·15"静安区胶州路教师公寓火灾为例,演示高层建筑火灾的BN后果预测模型的具体流程,并分析火灾预测结果。结果显示:灾后死亡人数大于30人的概率为75.3%、经济财产损失大于1亿元的概率为82.6%、政治影响大的概率为93.6%、部分房屋不可利用的概率为88.5%,与实际火灾情况基本一致,表明该方法有效、可行。
To improve accuracy of fire consequences work-based model was built after high-rise building fire prediction of high-rise building, a Bayesian net- evolution mechanism had been analyzed, and sys- tern components had been identified. Fire consequences were predicted using joint probability formula. Taking the ＂11 ~ 15＂ teachers＂ apartment building fire of Jiaozhou road Jing＇an district in Shanghai as an example, the specific process of consequences prediction with the model was illustrated, and results were analyzed. The results show that probability of death toll of more than 30 to 75.3%, the loss of economic property is greater than 100 billion Yuan for probability of 82.6% , great political influence as probability of 93.6%, part of housing is not available for 88.5%. The study is corresponded with actual fire circum- stances, and it proves effectiveness and feasibility of this method.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第12期54-59,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
关键词
后果预测
高层建筑
火灾
演变机理
贝叶斯网络(BN)
consequences prediction
high-rise buildings
fire
evolution mechanism
Bayesian network （BN）
