摘要
基于1992-2012年的时间序列数据,运用状态空间模型实证检验我国服务贸易进出口对第三产业就业的影响。结果显示:服务贸易出口能促进第三产业就业显著增加,而服务贸易进口由于替代效应对就业产生负面影响,但由于我国服务贸易的结构等原因表现并不显著。因此,我国可以通过发展第三产业、优化服务贸易结构和发展生产性服务贸易,更好的挖掘和发挥服务贸易的就业效应。
Based on 1992-2012 years of time series data, we use state space model to test if import and export of our country＇s service trade can influence employment of the third industry. The results show that service trade export can promote the third industry employment significantly, and service trade has import substitution effect and has the negative impact on employment, but the negative influence is not significant because of the structure of service trade. The author thinks that we should develop the third industry and optimize service trade structure, so we can utilize employment effect of service trade better.
出处
《经济与管理》
CSSCI
2013年第12期41-45,共5页
Economy and Management
关键词
服务贸易
就业效应
状态空间模型
Service trade
Employment effect
State space model
