摘要
本文利用1995—2011年我国30个省、市、自治区的省级面板数据,运用静态面板数据模型与动态面板数据模型以及克服内生性的分析技术,对产业结构合理化、产业结构高级化和经济发展方式转变及相关控制变量与就业的关系进行了经验研究。静态面板数据模型结果表明:产业结构合理化、产业结构高级化对降低失业率有积极作用;正向转变经济发展方式对提高失业率具有正效应,但产业结构高级化与转变经济发展方式协同作用对降低失业率具有明显的积极作用;第三产业比重与失业率呈负相关,实际经济增长率与失业率呈正相关。动态面板数据模型分析得出的结论与静态面板数据模型得出的结论是一致的。这说明,我国当前提出的"降增速、调结构、转方式、保就业"的经济政策具有内在逻辑一致性。
Based on Chinese interprovincial panel data for 30 provinces, municipal cities and autonomous re- gions from 1995 to 2011, this paper studies empirically the impact of industrial structure optimization and upgra- ding, the transition of economic development pattern and the relevant control variables on promoting employment by the static panel model , the dynamic panel model and the analytical techniques which overcome the endogene- ity. The static panel model show that： Optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure play a positive role in de- creasing unemployment rate ; the transition of economic development pattern has the negative influence on decrea- sing unemployment rate, however, the synergy between upgrading the industrial structure and the transition of e- conomic development pattern has the positive influence on decreasing unemployment rate; at the same time, the proportion of tertiary industry has the negative effect on the unemployment rate, the real increase rate of economy has the positive effect on the unemployment rate. The results of the dynamic panel model are consistent with the conclusion of the static panel model. According to the results, they can fully show that there are inner logic con- sistencies among decreasing the increase rate of economy, adjusting the industrial structure, transforming the eco- nomic development pattern and promoting employment policies.
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第12期70-77,共8页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目<提高我国居民消费能力长效机制研究>(编号:11CJL014)
第51批中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目<扩大居民消费需求研究:机制
路径与宏观经济稳定>(编号:2012M510652)
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目<AD-PA模型拓展与扩大就业的理论和政策研究>(编号:10YJC790287)
关键词
产业结构
合理化
高级化
经济发展方式
就业
Industrial structure
Optimization
Upgrade
Economic development pattern
Employment
