摘要
当前国际气候变化谈判中,各国碳排放责任的界定是一个焦点问题。国际贸易隐含碳的测算为合理界定各国的碳排放责任提供了依据。中国和美国是重要的贸易伙伴,中美贸易对两国碳排放具有重要影响。本文应用多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型,在考虑中美两国技术异质性的基础上,分别使用中美两国1995-2009年非竞争型投入产出表对中美贸易隐含碳进行了测算。为使测算结果准确和客观,本文利用总产出消费价格指数对中美两国各年产值及进出口贸易额进行了调整;并使用结构分解分析(SDA)法对中国向美国出口隐含碳的变化进行了因素分解。测算结果表明,从1995年到2009年,中国向美国出口隐含碳由165.95×106t增加到511.64×106t,增长了308.31%;中国从美国进口隐含碳从7.95×106t增加到29.46×106t,增长了370.57%;中国对美国净出口隐含碳从158.00×106t增加到482.18×106t,增长了305.18%。因素分解结果显示,从1995年到2009年,技术效应促使了中国向美国出口隐含碳的减少,规模效应和结构效应促使了中国向美国出口隐含碳的增加。为了减少对外贸易中的隐含碳排放,我国应努力提高生产技术和调整生产与贸易结构。
Defining the responsibility of carbon emissions of countries is one of the focuses in international climate negotiations.Calculation of embodied carbon in international trade provides data to define the responsibility of carbon emissions of countries.Considering the technology heterogeneity between China and the U.S.,this paper applies multi-region Input-Output analysis to estimate embodied carbon in China-U.S.trade,based on two country＇ s non-competitive input-output tables during the period of 1995-2009.This paper uses gross product consumer price index to adjust GDP and import and export trade data of the two countries during 1995-2009.Meanwhile structural decomposition analysis （SDA） is used to study the driving forces of changes of embodied carbon in China＇s exports to the U.S..The results show that embodied carbon in China＇s exports to the U.S.had increased from 165.95 Mt in 1995 to 511.64 Mt in 2009 by 308.31%.The embodied carbon in China＇ s imports from the U.S.had increased from 7.95 Mt in 1995 to 29.46 Mt in 2009 by 370.57%.The net embodied carbon in China＇ s exports to the U.S.had increased from 158.00 Mt in 1995 to 482.18 Mt in 2009 by 305.18%.The SDA analysis reveals that technical effect decreased the embodied carbon of China＇ s export to the U.S..Structure and scale effect of export increased embodied carbon of China＇ s exports to the U.S..We suggest that China should try to improve production technology and adjust production and trade structure.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第12期28-34,共7页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目"金砖五国对外贸易隐含碳测算及我国对策研究"(编号:71273026)
