摘要
为分析光伏电站并网对发电系统可靠性的影响,提出了新的光伏电站多状态可靠性模型。模型根据光伏电站实测数据求得各状态的晴空指数和辐照度波动指标,提出按数据等频划分的原则计算各状态之间的转移概率,并对给定状态下的太阳辐照度进行分时模拟,最后采用序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法评估含光伏电站的发电系统的可靠性。由于考虑了实际太阳辐照度波动特性与晴空指数之间的相关性,状态抽样结果表明,提出的光伏辐照度多状态时序模型更符合实际的天气变化特性。基于RBTS的仿真结果表明,采用此模型的光伏电站可靠性分析相对于直接抽样法的计算结果更精确。
In order to analyze the reliability of generation system with photovoltaic （PV） station, this paper established a new multi-state model of the PV station. Clearness indexes and irradiance fluctuation indexes of each state were obtained by analysis of the historical data from a PV station. According to the principle of equal frequency division of the data proposed in this paper, transition probability of each state was calculated, and the timing simulation of the solar irradiance for the given state was done. Then sequential Monte Carlo simulation technology was utilized to assess the reliability of generation system with PV station. Because of considering the correlation between the irradiance fluctuation characteristics and clearness index of the actual weather conditions, the results of the state sampling show that multi-state timing model of solar irradiance proposed in this paper is more in line with the actual weather conditions. Simulation results on Roy Billinton test system （RBTS） demonstrate that compared to direct sampling, methods proposed in this paper can get more accurate results in reliability analysis of generation system with PV station.
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第34期42-49,10,共8页
Proceedings of the CSEE
基金
中央高校基本科研业务项目(2012B05914)
海外名师基金项目(MS2012HHDX021)~~
关键词
光伏电站
可靠性
晴空指数
波动特性
序贯蒙特卡洛模拟
photovoltaic station
reliability
clearnessindex
variability characteristics
sequential Monte Carlosimulation
