摘要
欧盟和美国分别是中国以出口额衡量的第一和第二大贸易伙伴,美欧间的自由贸易安排难免会对中国的对外贸易和经济运行产生影响。本文使用可计算一般均衡模型,基于动态比较分析的视角,以美欧间关税和非关税壁垒作为冲击变量,模拟了TTIP对中国宏观经济和各行业产出和贸易的影响。模拟结果显示:在其他条件不变时,如果TTIP顺利建成实施,其对中国宏观经济的综合负面影响较为明显,会对中国的资本技术密集型产品和服务业的产出和出口贸易造成负面冲击。
EU and the US are respectively China＇s first and second largest trade partners in terms of export value, and the free trade arrangement between EU and the US would unavoidably influence China＇s foreign trade and economic running. Based on a dynamic comparative analytical perspective, this paper sets tariff and non-tariff variables as the shock values, uses CGE model to simulate the impact of TTIP on China＇s macro economy, industrial outputs and general trade. The results show that, when other conditions remain unchanged, if the TTIP is successfully set up and put into use, it would have a significant compre- hensive negative impact on China＇s macro economy; the output and export of China＇s capital and technology intensive products and of the service industry would be impaired.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第12期79-86,共8页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家社会科学基金项目<形成有利于科学宏观调控体系中通货膨胀预期的研究>
项目号:<105-1621115>
