摘要
本文应用中国30个省份1997～2010年面板数据，采用面板向量自回归模型对经济增长、污染排放和能源消费之间的动态关系进行建模。通过建立的模型我们发现，对未来的预测各变量自己解释了很大部分，但是对收入的冲击还有部分来自能源消费，对污染排放和能源消费的冲击还有部分来自收入。因果关系检验表明，污染排放是经济增长的原因，但能源消费不是经济增长的原因；收入增长是污染排放和能源消费的原因；能源消费是污染排放的原因，但是反向关系不成立。这些检验表明，制定宏观经济政策时一定要注意三者之间的关系，发展低能源消耗、绿色产业和低碳行业，这样既不损害经济增长又能减少污染排放。
Based on the panel data of 30 provinces of China from 1997 to 2010, this paper uses the panel vector autoregression model to model the dynamic relationship between economic growth, pollution emissions and energy consumption. Through the establishment of the model, the authors find the projections for the future, the variables explain a large part of themselves, but part of revenue impact come from energy consumption, and some impacts of emissions and energy consumption come from revenue. Causality test shows that pollution is the cause of economic growth, but energy consumption is not; on the contrary, revenue is the causes of emissions and energy consumption. This paper finds that energy consumption is the cause of pollution, but the reverse relationship is not established. These tests indicate that macroeconomic policy must pay attention to the relationship between three variables, develop low energy consumption, low carbon and green industries and sectors, avoid damage economic growth and reduce pollution emissions.
出处
《山西财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第11期25-34,共10页
Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics
基金
2012年教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-12-0595)
国家自然科学基金(71171001)
教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(11YJC630107
10YJC910012)
2012年安徽省自然科学基金面上项目(1208085MG123)
关键词
经济增长
环境污染
能源消费
面板向量自回归
economic growth
environmental pollution
energy consumption
panel vector autoregression
