摘要
对可持续发展能力的定量评估是进行可持续发展研究的关键,基于生态足迹计算的发展能力指标是较好的评价指标之一。采用生态足迹模型,首次对宁夏1991-2010年长时间序列生态足迹进行了计算,对生态赤字的构成进行了分析;修正了Ulanowicz的发展能力模型,创新性的在计算公式中将万元GDP生态赤字(盈余)因子引入,对宁夏生态经济系统的可持续发展能力进行了评价。结果表明:1991-2010年宁夏人均生态赤字高于全球0.4 hm2,和全国0.68 hm2的水平相比,1991-2010年宁夏生态赤字扩大5倍,20 a间系统稳定性逐渐下降,但近年有向良性化方向好转的趋势。在2010年资源利用效率最高;生态经济系统可持续发展能力持续上升,2010年最大,为2.993,是20 a前的16倍多。提高生态足迹多样性、提高资源利用效益,是宁夏提高发展能力的途径;且通过政策手段对能耗进行控制,宁夏建设可持续发展经济是可期待的。
The quantitative evaluation of sustainable development ability is a prerequisite for implementing the strategy of sustainable development, and it is also a key point to study the sustainable development. The ecological footprint model, a method developed by Canadian scholar Mathis Wackernagel, is used to measure sustainable devel- opment ability in this thesis. Based on the calculation of ecological footprint, the paper considers that the develop- mental ability index is one of the best indexes for evaluation, determined by calculating the land （ecological foot- print） which needed by the human society who takes all consumption activities in a specific area, and the land （eco- system carrying capacity） which can provide for biological and productive materials in the same area, we can com- pare the land （ecological footprint） to the land （ecosystem carrying capacity）, so that it can help us to make a judg- ment for regional sustainable development. Adopting ecological footprint model, this thesis calculates an ecological footprint according to different land types and different consumption types in Ningxia Hut Autonomous Region from 1991 to 2010. For the first time, it analyzes components of the Region＇ s ecological deficit, modifies the Ulanowicz model, and introduces ecological deficit （and surplus）for each 10 000 Yuan of GDP when using the calculating for- mula innovatively. Finally, it evaluates the sustainable development ability of the eco-economic system for a long time scale in Ningxia Hut Autonomous Region objectively. The thesis owns something referential value and practical significance such as increasing the diversity of ecological footprint, making the best use of resources, controlling the energy consumption by appropriate policies and promoting the sustainable economic development of Ningxia. The re- sults obtained indicate that the ecological deficit per cap in Ningxia is higher than the deficit per capita of the world （which is 0.4 hm2） and nationwide （0.68 hm2） from
出处
《干旱区地理》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第5期906-912,共7页
Arid Land Geography
基金
国家自然基金项目(41161022)
甘肃省科技支撑计划项目(090NKCA075)资助
关键词
宁夏
生态足迹
发展能力
万元GDP生态赤字
the Ningxia Hut Autonomous Region
ecological footprint
development ability
ecological deficit for each 10 000 Yuan GDP
