摘要
随着我国石油企业海外业务不断发展,海外突发事件频发,对我国石油企业应急管理提出了更高的要求,作为应急管理重要组成部分的应急物资需求管理也成为关注的重点。但是海外环境的复杂性、不确定性等使得企业很难预测应急物资需求,为此将案例推理引入到石油企业海外突发事件应急物资需求预测中,通过建立案例库,以在发生新的突发事件时,检索案例库中与目标案例相匹配的案例,并依据匹配案例的结论,进行新案例的物资需求预测。
With the development of overseas business for oil enterprises in China, emergencies occur frequently in this process and it put forward higher request on the ability of emergency management, the material requirements management, which is an important part of emergency management , has also become a focus. Because the com- plexity, uncertainty of overseas environment, and lacking of information, it makes that enterprise is hard to predict the demand of emergency materials. The CBR was introduced to forecast the demand of emergency materials. By establishing case base, when the new emergencies happen, the materials demand of new case can be forecasted by conclusions of the match case which is similar to the goal case.
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
CSCD
2013年第9期177-182,共6页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
关键词
案例推理
突发事件
应急物资
需求预测
case based reasoning
emergencies
emergency materials
demand forecasting
