摘要
针对传统费用分析方法在舰空导弹武器装备寿命周期费用预测中存在的不足,引入灰色理论的GM(1,1)模型对寿命周期费用进行拟合和预测。同时为了进一步提高预测的精度,对GM(1,1)模型加以改进,重构了背景值公式,通过与原有GM(1,1)模型预测结果进行比较,表明背景值优化后GM(1,1)模型的预测精度显著提高,可为舰空导弹武器装备的使用保障、退役和更新提供更为有效的决策依据。
According to the shortage of traditional cost analysis method in the prediction of life cycle cost for ship-to-air missile weaponry, the GM（1,1） model of grey system theory is applied to cost fitting and prediction. Meanwhile, the GM（1,1） model is improved by reestablishing the formula of background value in order to further raise forecast accuracy. The prediction outcome shows that the improved GM（1,1） model has higher accuracy compared with the original GM（1,1） model, which provides more effective decision for the use, retirement and update of ship-to-air missile weaponry.
出处
《兵工自动化》
2013年第10期4-7,共4页
Ordnance Industry Automation
