摘要
本文利用主成分分析法测度了中国各省市1985-2009年的经济增长质量以及增长效率、稳定性和可持续性,使用动态面板模型分析了FDI和国际贸易的作用,并讨论了政府因素的影响。研究发现:(1)中国经济增长的质量经历了一个快速、稳定的上升过程,其中,效率和稳定性总体呈上升趋势,可持续性则逐年下降。(2)FDI和国际贸易对经济增长质量发挥了积极作用;政府因素有效促进了FDI的积极作用,但对贸易渠道的作用不显著。(3)FDI仅对可持续性具有显著的促进作用,政府因素降低了FDI的积极作用;国际贸易显著提升了增长的效率和稳定性,但对增长可持续性具有较强的抑制作用,政府因素在稳定性渠道中阻碍了贸易效应的发挥。上述结论表明,中国国际贸易和引资的规模尚未超出合理范围,但政策的有效性仍需加强;加强外资引导,转变贸易重点,有利于我国经济增长质量的进一步提高。
Based on measuring the quality of China＇s economic growth with provincial data, this paper estimates the effect of FDI and international trade on economic growth quality, as well as government factor＇s effect in this process empirically, and gets some conclusions. Firstly, the quality of China＇s economic growth improves rapidly in the sample period, charactering the rise of growth efficiency and stability and the decline of sustainability. Secondly, FDI and international trade both have significant positive effects on China＇s economic growth quality, while the government factor promotes FDI and have non-significant impact on international trade. Thirdly, FDI only has a significant positive effect on growth sustainability, which is hampered by the government factor. International trade has a significant positive effect on the growth efficiency and stability and a negative effect on growth sustainability, and the government factor hampers international trade＇s effect on stability. The above analysis shows that the scales of both China＇s international trade and FDI inflow are in rational scopes, while the policy efficiency still needs enhancing. Improving the quality of China＇s economic growth requires strengthening foreign investment guidance and changing the focus of international trade.
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第9期85-94,共10页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
中国博士后科学基金面上项目"FDI对中国经济增长质量与数量的非一致性作用研究"(2012M521303)
山东省社会科学规划研究基金青年项目"外资引入
贸易扩张与山东省经济增长质量提升:机制
效果与对策分析"(12DJJJ05)
山东省博士后创新基金项目"外资引入
贸易扩张与山东省经济增长质量提升:理论解释与经验分析"(201103066)的资助
关键词
FDI
国际贸易
经济增长质量
政府因素
Foreign Direct Investment, International Trade, Economic Growth Quality, Government Factor
