摘要
快速城市化出现的城市建设用地扩张问题,受到人们广泛关注,借鉴发达国家经验,我国需要测算一个极限区间值进行自上而下的总量控制,以促进最严格耕地保护制度和节约用地制度的落实。但是如何测算这个极限规模一直没有得到很好解决。本文提出了一个常规方法组合和关键指标相结合的技术思路来尝试解决这个问题。研究首先对城市用地扩展规模的影响因子进行了分析,讨论了城市人口数量和GDP分别与建成区面积相关性,确定了城市人口数量对建成区面积影响更大;在此基础上,采用逻辑斯蒂模型,依据我国1950-2010年经济数据,对城市化水平进行预测;用自回归分布滞后模型,依据1951-2010年全国人口数据对未来人口规模进行预测,并分为三个方案对结果进行了讨论;最后按照城市用地分类与规划建设用地标准,以节约集约用地为原则,将人均城市用地规模取值控制在65.0-115.0 m2,计算城市用地扩展极限规模。结果表明,到2045年,中国的城市化预测水平为79.99%,在中国人口增长控制较好的情况下,人口规模将达到14.97亿人,城市用地扩展规模为77 857.38-137 747.70 km2;若中国人口达到有关研究的预测峰值16亿人,中国城市化水平稳定在80%,城市用地扩展极限规模将会是83 200.00-147 200.00 km2。综合以上分析,未来我国的城市建设用地总量应在7.8万km2到14.7万km2之间。
As urbanization grows fast, more and more people pay attention to the extending reconstruction land in cities. To draw on the experience of developed countries, China needs to measure and calculate a limit interval value for the total control from the higher level to the lower level. This helps implement the farmland protection system and land conservation system. But how to measure and calculate the limit scale has not been solved. In this paper, combination of conventional methods and key indicators is used to solve this problem. First, this paper discussed the correlation of the urban population and GDP, respectively, with the built-up area and determine the number of the urban population of the greater impact of built-up area. Then, based on China＇s economic data from 1950-2010 and population data from 1951 -2010, the paper predicted the level of urbanization by Logistic model and the future population by autoregressive distributed lag model and discussed the results divided into three programs. Finally, the paper calculated the limit scale of the urban land expansion, based on classification of urban land use and planning standards of urban constraetion land land, the principle of economical and intensive land and urban land use scale which was set between 65.0 and 115.0 m^2/person. The results showed that, by 2045, the level of urbanization in China will be approximately 80%. In the case of better control of population growth, population scale will be about 1 497 000 000 and the value of limit scale of the urban land expansion will be 77 857.38 - 137 747.70 km^2. If the Chinese population prediction peak reaches 1 600 000 000 and the level of urbanization is stable at 80% , the value of limit scale of the urban land expansion will be 83 200.00 - 147 200.00 km^2. Based on the above, the predictive value of limit scale of the urban land expansion in China will be 78 226.12 - 147 200.00 km^2.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第8期55-61,共7页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国土资源部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(编号:201111014)
关键词
城市用地规模
扩展极限
城市化
人口预测
scale of city size
growth of limit
urbanization
population projection
