摘要
选用滦河下游滦县水文站1956～2006年径流量资料,采用线性倾向估计、滑动平均、滑动t检验、Yamamoto法、有序聚类和小波分析等方法分析了滦河下游年径流量演变趋势和周期特征,并分析了径流变化原因。结果表明,滦河下游年径流量呈显著下降趋势,年径流量倾向率为-9.5×108 m3/10a;年径流量在1979年前后发生了突变,随后总体呈下降趋势;年径流序列主要存在3个尺度的周期变化,其中以30年以上尺度的震荡最强;人口增长、工农业用水增加、跨流域调水等人类活动因素是导致滦河下游径流量减少的主要原因。
Based on the runoff data of the Luanxian station in the lower reaches of the Luanhe River from 1956 to 2006, variation trend and periodicity of runoff are analyzed by using the methods of linear trend analysis, moving average, moving t-test, Yamamoto, sequential cluster and wavelet analysis. And then the causes of runoff change are analyzed. The results show that the annual runoff of lower reaches of the Luanhe River has obvious downward trend with a rate of -9.5×10^8m^8/10a; the annual runoff in Luanxian station occurred abrupt change in 1979, followed by the downward trend; the annual runoff series mainly exist three-scale cycle changes, among which more than 30 years oscillation period of the runoff is obvious; the main reasons for the decline of the runoff in the lower reaches of the Luanhe River are the population growth, increased agricultural and industrial water use, inter-basin water transfer and other human activities.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2013年第7期16-19,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目(2011491711)
水沙科学与水灾害防治湖南省重点实验室(长沙理工大学)开放基金资助项目(2013SS01)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41101511)
湖北省教育厅自然科学研究基金资助项目(Q20121301)
三峡大学人才科研启动基金资助项目(KJ2010B029)
关键词
径流
突变性
周期性
滦河下游
runoff
abrupt change
periodicity
lower reaches of Luanhe River
