摘要
为实现短波通信链路可用频率的短期预报,提出了一种基于卡尔曼同化技术的电离层特征参数短期预报方法.该方法以电离层观测网实时测量值为基础,对未来1～24h的电离层参量foF2进行预报.通过对不同太阳活动期、不同季节中国区域预报的分析,结果表明:该方法短期预报均方根误差在0.57～0.72MHz之间,相对误差在9%～12%之间;且中高纬地区的预报精度优于低纬地区.
For short-term forecast of available technique has been proposed. rameters sounded by ionosph c forecast method According to the frequency in short based on Kalman diurnal variations eric sounding network, short-term f -wave communlca- filter assimilation of ionospheric pa- orecasting of criti-cal frequencies of foFz in the next 1~24 hours has been accomplished successfully. The short term forecasting results of China region during three epochs of the solar activity are analyzed, and the results show that the root-mean-square error of fore- casting value and observation of ten sounding stations was from 0.57 MHz to 0.72MHz; the relative error was from 9% to 12%, and the forecasting accuracy of re- gion of medium and high latitude was better than that of low latitude.
出处
《电波科学学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第3期498-504,共7页
Chinese Journal of Radio Science
关键词
电离层
短期预报
卡尔曼滤波
同化
ionospheric
short-term forecast
Kalman Filter
assimilation
