摘要
设计了3E系统指标体系,然后运用因子分析方法分别对3E系统及其子系统的综合发展指数进行了测算,最后建立了3E系统演化过程的数学模型——Logistic模型。实证结果表明:3E系统及其子系统的演化路径符合Lo-gistic法则,其演化路径大致分为3个阶段,分别是孕育期、成长期和成熟期,能源、经济和环境子系统进入成长期的时间基本一致,而进入成熟期的时间不一致,每个子系统在其演化进程中都受到一些主要因素的影响。
This paper, starting with designing the index of 3E system, measures the comprehensive development index of 3E system and its subsystems respectively by means of factor analysis. The mathematical model - Logistic equation for the gen- eral evolution path of 3E system is constructed on the basis of the comprehensive index. The result shows that the evolution- ary paths of 3E and subsystems have been tested in accordance with law of Logistic, which evolution path of 3E system and subsystems roughly are divided into three stages, the incubation period, growth period and maturity period. And on the con- dition of some different major factors, three subsystems approximately come into growth period in the same time, while start- ing time of mature period is inconsistency.
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第7期37-41,共5页
Soft Science
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(11YJC630034)
安徽省自然科学基金项目(1208085QG132)
