摘要
2010年历史上罕见地有了第6号强热带风暴"狮子山"、第7号强台风"圆规"和第8号热带低压"南川"在40 h内相继生成,且之后移动路径异常。通过对国内外六个业务数值模式对这3个热带气旋路径预报能力进行分析,发现尽管业务模式对热带气旋路径大致趋势具备一定的预报能力,但对于转向点、登陆点的预报仍与实况有较大差距。通过数值模拟试验发现,预报难点在于模式对作为3个热带气旋间连接纽带的"南川"与"狮子山"、"圆规"之间的相互作用的描述。结合环境场特点及双台风相互作用的概念模型,分析发现"南川"与"狮子山"可能存在直接相互作用,而与"圆规"可能发生了半直接相互作用。进一步利用中国气象局上海台风研究所近年来发展的GRAPES-TCM台风模式进行了以"南川"为核心的敏感性数值试验,初步证明了这3个热带气旋相互作用的存在,并提出了"南川"对"狮子山"和"圆规"路径产生影响的物理机制。
Tropical cyclones （TCs） Lionrock, Kompasu and Namtheun were generated successively within 40 hours in 2010. After that, they experienced unusual movement which brought much difficulty to the operational prediction. Verifications are performed on the operational track forecasts from six operational models, including three global models and three regional models. Results show that, while the overall evolution of unusual TC tracks is reproduced by these models, the turning points of trajectory and landfall locations are not simulated well. According to a conceptual model of binary TC interaction, Lionrock＇s special track should be associated with direct interaction with Namtheun, while the relation between Kompasu and Namtheun met the criteria for a semi-direct interaction. Numerical experiments based on GRAPES-TCM model further confirmed the effect of Namtheum on the unusual tracks of Lionrock and Kompasu. Finally, the physical mechanism of binary TC interaction is preliminarily Drooosed.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第3期421-431,共11页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划“台风登陆前后异常变化及机理研究”(973项目编号:2009CB421500、2009CB421506)
国家自然科学基金两岸台风暴雨合作项目(40921160381)
国家自然科学基金项目(40705024、40875039)
科技部气象行业专项(GYHY201006007、GYHY201006008、GYHY201006016)
上海台风研究基金项目(2010ST09)共同资助
