摘要
目的建立食品中化学物的高端暴露膳食模型并进行验证。方法基于人体仅可能同时有2～3种食物的消费量达到人群较高水平的假设，提出计算多种食物来源的食物化学物高端暴露量的膳食模型。采用2011年全国化学污染物和有害因素监测数据库中铅、镉、汞含量数据（样本量分别为45832、43862和25243份）和2002年中国居民健康与营养状况调查中各类食物消费量数据，以半概率分布模型为参考，对模型的重要参数进行选择，并以2010年监测的8种化学污染物在各类食品中的含量数据进行验证。结果在第90、95、97．5百分位数高端暴露水平下，当分别采用7、12、20、30种食物分类时，含有两个高暴露食物的模型（2＋X模型）输出结果与半概率分布模型输出结果（参考值）的相对偏离度均〈0；含3个高暴露食物的模型（3＋X模型）输出结果的相对偏离度均〉0，但均在±20％之间。进一步对模型进行验证表明，8种不同化学污染物通过3＋X模型得到的结果均接近和（或）高于半概率分布模型的结果，相对偏离度在-5％～25％之间。结论3＋X高端暴露模型可兼顾暴露评估模型对准确性和保守性的要求，能可靠地对多种食物来源的化学物的高端暴露量进行估计。
Objective To develop and verify a model diet for consumers with high exposure to food chemicals. Methods Based on the assumption that a person might consume average amounts of several different foods but only two or three at high levels, a model diet were put forward to calculate the high exposures to certain food chemical. Important parameters of this model were selected by comparing the outputs of this model with those of a reference model-semi-probabilistic model that is based on individual data. The concentration data of lead, cadmium and mercury （45 832,43 862 and 25 243 samples respectively） from the national risk surveillance for chemical contaminations and harmful factors （2011 ） , and the consumption data from the national survey on nutrition and health status in Chinese population （2002） were used in this model optimization process. The final model was verified using concentration data of eight chemical contaminations from national surveillance database of 2010. Results When 90,95 and 97.5 percentile exposure being calculated under the conditions that 7, 12,20 and 30 food categories was used respectively, the model containing two high consumption foods （2 ＋ x model） got results lower than the reference values（ the relative deviation 〈 0）, the model containing three high consumption foods （3 ＋ x model） got results higher than the reference values （ the relative deviation 〉 0 ）, but the relative deviation of the two models were both within 20%. The verification results showed that the dietary exposure results of 8 food contaminations got from 3 ＋ x model were all higher than and （or） close to those got from semi-probabilistie model, and the relative deviations were between - 5% and 25%. Conclusion The 3 ＋ x model diet can fulfill the demands of ＂conservative＂ and ＂accurate＂ on exposure assessment model, and can give reliable estimations of high exposure to food chemicals occurred in various food categories.
出处
《中华预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第6期565-568,共4页
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
基金
国家科技支撑计划（2012BAK01B00）
关键词
食品
膳食
模型
统计学
风险评估
化学物
Food
Diet
Models, statistical
Risk assessment
Chemicals
