摘要
运用因素分解方法,将影响环境污染事故频数变化的因素分解为经济规模、污染治理资金规模和风险控制技术水平,构建了环境污染事故频数变化的完全分解模型,并对我国1991-2010年的数据进行实证分析.结果表明:环境污染事故年度间变化均值为-138起.其中,由经济规模、污染治理投资规模和风险控制技术水平所引起的频数变化分别为279起,-74起和-344起.总的看来:该时期经济规模增长对污染事故频数增加起到促进作用,但随着经济规模的增加,该效应对污染事故频数的促进作用减弱;1991-2005年污染治理投资效应有一定的随机性,对污染事故频数的增加基本起到遏制作用;风险控制技术效应对污染事故频数的增加起到遏制作用.环境污染事故频数变化是由各因素共同作用的结果,在不同时期各因素对污染事故频数变化所发挥的效应不同.
Based on the time series data from 1991 to 2010 in China, a determinant decomposition model was established to analyze the annual changes of the frequencies of environmental pollution accidents（EPAs）. In the model, the changing frequencies of EPAs were decomposed to three different driving factors： economic scale, pollution control investments and risk control technology levels. Each factor was then measured and analyzed. From 1991 to 2010 the annual changes of the frequencies of EPAs showed a decreasing trend. Inter-annual change mean of EPAs was -138, thereinto, economic scale, pollution control investments and risk control technology levels had different contributions to the change, being 279, -74, -344 respectively. The empirical results show that different factors had a comprehensive impact on the variation of frequencies of EPAs, but they exerted different effects in different periods of time. The factor of increased economic scale played a promotive role in the increasing frequency of EPAs, which however will be reduced with the increase of economic scale to some degree. The factor of pollution control investments had no significant effects on the reduction of frequencies of EPAs from 1991 to 2005. The factor of risk control technologies led to a significant reduction of frequencies of EPAs.
出处
《中国环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第5期931-937,共7页
China Environmental Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41171411)
国际科技合作项目(S2010GR0641)
江苏省“青蓝工程”
关键词
环境污染事故
完全分解模型
经济规模
污染治理投资规模
风险控制技术
environmental pollution accidents
complete decomposition model
economic scale
pollution controlinvestments scale
risk control technology
