摘要
人口老龄化的加剧必然会使得我国城镇职工基本养老保险承受巨大的偿付压力,那么延长退休年龄能缓解这一危机吗?本文采用精算模型研究发现,在退休年龄政策不变的情况下,统筹基金将在2022年出现收不抵支,2024年出现赤字;当仅延长女性退休年龄至60岁时,收不抵支和赤字的年份分别推迟至2029年和2035年;当男女退休年龄分别延长至65岁和60岁时,收不抵支和赤字的年份分别推迟至2036年和2047年;当男女退休年龄均延长至65岁时,收不抵支的年份将推迟至2048年,虽然2050年前统筹基金具备充足的偿付能力,但已开始消耗累计结余,未来仍会出现偿付危机。所以,延长退休年龄在一定程度上缓解了养老保险的偿付压力,但未来仍会亏空,养老问题会继续留给下一代。
At present, China is plagued by population aging. It is shown by the data set ot the slxtla census mat the percent of people older than the age of 60 and 65 reaches 13.26% and 8. 87%. Simultaneously, China has en- tered the era with low birth rate. The total fertility rate （TFR） of Chinese women in 2010 was 1.19, of which urban and rural women＇ s total fertility rate were 0. 98 and 1.44, both were below the replacement level of 2. 1. Increasing population aging and low fertility level will inevitably make China＇ s urban employee basic pension insurance with- standing high expending pressure. In order to alleviate the tremendous pressure of the pension insurance, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security proposed a new policy about extending the retirement age in July 2012. How- ever, will extending the retirement age really improve the solvency of China＇ s pension insurance system＇？. This paper is improved in the following three points： firstly, we concern the differential treatment upon the re- tired workers of different ages by subdividing retired workers categories. Secondly, the results are more precise be- cause the parameters selection is much more accurate under the consideration of the regional difference of policy running. Thirdly, we restructure the actuarial models according to the workers categories. On this basis, we evalu- ate the effects of four retirement policies in the next four decades. The conclusion of this paper is that, firstly, un- der the present policy of retirement age, pension insurance will bear enormous pressure as is shown by our calcula- tion, the income of the pooling fund will not balance the expense in 2022, the gap between income and expenditure is 33. 166 billion Yuan, and deficit will appear in 2024. Secondly, extending the retirement age can only postpone the year of income over expenditure and deficit. When only extending the female retirement age to 60 years old, the year of income over expenditure and deficit will be postponed to 2029 and 2035,
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第5期108-117,共10页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
上海财经大学研究生创新基金"财政透明度的影响因素分析"(CXJJ-2011-307)
关键词
退休年龄
养老保险
统筹基金
精算模型
retirement age
pension insurance
pooling fund
actuarial models
