摘要
使用国家气候中心新一代大气环流模式BCC_AGCM2.0(T106L26)进行22a夏季(6—8月)、11个成员的集合回报试验;针对500hPa高度场、降水和气温的预测能力进行交叉检验,并计算其均方根误差。结果表明:模式对热带地区、海洋和欧亚大陆部分地区500hPa高度场的模拟较好;对我国长江中下游、华南大部分地区降水的模拟具有一定可信度;2m温度距平在我国北方大部分地区呈现正相关且相关系数通过90%的信度检验,在南方地区则有待改善。集合预报效果好于单样本预报。模式分辨率的提高在一定程度上有助于改进预报效果。
The ensemble hindcast experiments of 11 members in summer （JJA） of 22 years were con- ducted by the BCC_AGCM2.0 （ T106L26 ） developed by National Climate Center. The capability of prediction in 500 hPa geopotential height, precipitation, and 2 m air temperature were tested by the cross validation and root mean square error methods. Results indicate that the model shows a good perform- ance of 500 hPa geopotential height in the tropical region, oceans and parts of Eurasia. The simulation of precipitation over the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River and most parts of South China has consid- erable reliability. The correlation coefficients of the 2 m air temperature anomalies in most parts of northern China are positive and pass the local significance test at 90% confidence level. However,the results in southern China are needed to be improved. Meanwhile, the ensemble forecast is much better than the single-sample prediction. The forecasting results can be improved by using the higher resolution atmospheric general circulation model.
出处
《大气科学学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第2期192-201,共10页
Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2012CB955203)
国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2010AA012404)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY(QX)201106022)
关键词
高分辨率大气环流模式
季节预测
交叉检验
集合预报
high resolution atmospheric general circulation model
seasonal forecast
cross validation
ensemble forecast
