摘要
[目的]分析象山半岛改水除氟30年氟中毒病区氟斑牙患病情况,并对未来5年患病趋势进行预测。[方法]收集1982—2012年象山半岛改水除氟资料,使用等级相关分析探索患病率与改水时间相关性,使用时间序列分析模型ARIMA对氟斑牙患病率进行建模并预测。[结果]改水前、改水10年后、20年后、30年后氟斑牙患病率分别为76.36%、46.20%、0.98%以及0.35%,等级相关分析显示随时间的延长,患病率逐年下降(rs=0.99,P<0.01);ARIMA模型结果预测未来5年氟斑牙患病率分别为0.29%、0.20%、0.15%、0.12%、以及0.10%。[结论]象山半岛氟斑牙患病率逐年降低,改水除氟措施有效。
[ Objective] To analyse morbidity of dental fluorosis after 30 yrs of defluoridation water improvement in Xiangshan peninsula, and to predict the prevalence of dental fluorosis in future 5 yrs. [Methods] Data on defluoridation water improvement in Xiangshan peninsula during 1982 -2012 was collected , and rank correlation analysis used to explore the relationship between prevalence and time. The ARIMA model analysis in time sequence was used for building model and predicting the prevalence of dental flusosis. [ Results ] The prevalence of dental fluorosis before defluoridation water improvement was 76.36%, and l0 yrs, 20 yrs and 30 yrs after were 46.20%, 0.98% and 0.35% respectively. The differ- ence between them was significant and showed byx2 test （X2 = 107.71, P 〈0. 01 ）. The rank correlation a- nalysis showed that the prevalence rate was decreased with time （ rs = 0. 99, P 〈 0. 01 ）. The prevalence of dental fluorosls in the future 5 yrs would be 0.29% ,0.20% ,0.15% ,0.12% ,and 0.10% as was predicted by ARIMA model. [ Conclusion ] The prevalence of dental fluorosis has been decreased year by year, indicating that the defluoridation water improvement has been effective.
出处
《上海预防医学》
CAS
2013年第4期174-176,共3页
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine
关键词
氟斑牙
患病率
预测
时间序列分析
Dental fluorosis
,Prevalence
Prediction
Time series analysis
