摘要
在开放条件下,中国过剩流动性的波动受到了内生货币化进程和美元流动性输入的共同影响。内生货币化进程决定了中国的均衡货币化路径,即马歇尔K指标(M2/GDP)的均衡增长路径。而美元流动性输入则影响了中国马歇尔K指标围绕均衡路径的变动趋势,进而影响了过剩流动性的波动。本文使用向量误差修正模型分析了中国货币总量、实际产出,以及美元流动性之间的双重均衡关系,从而分析了1998年以来中国过剩流动性的波动规律。而加入马尔可夫链的非线性模型显示,在美国执行第一轮"量化宽松货币政策(QE1)"以后,美元流动性对中国宏观流动性状况的短期冲击效应显著提高。在美国已经开启新一轮量化宽松政策的背景下,这些结论将有助于我们更好地判断中国当前的流动性状况,并提高货币政策的前瞻性。
For Chinese economy, the excess liquidity should be defined as the deviation of actual money stock from its equilibrium path. This paper uses MS-VECM fitting the long-term linear growing path and short-term non-linear growing path of Chinese monetization ratio. Based on the equilibrium path, this paper analyzes the periodic fluctuations of Chinese excess liquidity. There is evidence showing that U. S. dollar liquidity, along with Chinese policy variables, affected the fluctuations of Chinese excess liquidity. In the Post-Crisis Era, Chinese monetization ratio is approaching its equilibrium path. However, China needs to get prepared for hedging the potential changes of dollar liquidity.
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期54-62,共9页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
2010年国家社科基金重点项目"中国宏观调控政策前瞻性问题研究"(10AJY001)的资助
关键词
过剩流动性
货币化路径
美元流动性
Excess Liquidity
Monetization Path
U. S. Dollar Liquidity
