摘要
文章在开放经济条件下建立两国模型,研究货币政策的国际间溢出问题。由于国内外各种因素的存在,中央银行不能准确预测货币需求的变化,很难对货币供应量进行有效的控制,从而导致货币政策传导失效,不利于经济的平稳快速发展。通过构建空间面板模型,研究世界主要经济体货币政策对宏观经济的直接效应和溢出效应。在考虑到世界主要经济体空间相互影响后,一国货币供应量增加的直接效应为负,而溢出效应为正,表明货币供应量增加会引起本币贬值和资本流出,进而对本地区的宏观经济造成负向影响,但是对相邻地区会造成正向影响。一国实际利率上升的直接效应为正,对相邻地区的间接效应为负,表明本国实际利率上升会引起本币升值和资本流入,进而促进本地区经济的正向增长,但对相邻地区会造成负向影响。世界主要经济体在充分运用价格型货币政策使用的同时,应加强各国货币政策的统筹协调,并增强自身的硬实力,以减少货币政策溢出带来的不利影响。
By constructing the spatial panel model,this paper studies the direct effects and spillover effects of the monetary policy of the major economies in the world. The results showed that different from the traditional monetary policy,considering the spatial influence of the world's major economies each other,the direct effect of increasing a country' s money supply is negative,while the spillover effect is positive. It indicates that the increase in money supply will cause the devaluation of the local currency and the outflow of capital,thus negatively affecting the macro economy of the region. But it will have a positive impact on the adjacent areas. The direct effect of the rise in real interest rate of a country is positive,and the indirect effect is negative to the adjacent areas. It shows that when the real interest rate of the country rises,it will cause the appreciation of the local currency and the inflow of capital,thereby promoting the positive growth of the regional economy. But it has negative effects on adjacent areas. When the world's major economies are fully using their pricing policies,they should strengthen the overall coordination of monetary policy to reduce the adverse impact of monetary policy spillover effect.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第11期3-14,共12页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(项目编号:71471117)的资助
