摘要
本文基于中国1978—2010年的省级面板数据,综合利用SFA和DEA方法计算了改革以来中国经济增长的动力来源,研究结果表明:资本投入是中国经济增长持续稳定的最主要来源,中国经济增长的投资拉动特征非常明显;TFP改进对中国经济增长的贡献逐渐降低,2002年以后持续呈现负值;中国经济增长的动力由改革最初的资本、劳动和TFP三驾马车式的平衡拉动,转换成现阶段的资本投入与TFP反向角力态势。中国要想在未来成功跨越中等收入陷阱,迫切需要加快实现经济增长的动力机制由投资拉动向效率驱动的转换,对此,我们在探讨成因的基础上提出了相应的政策建议。
This paper synthetically used SFA and DEA methods to calculate the propulsion source of China＇s economic growth since reform based on the provincial panel data in year 1978-2010, and the results show that： capital input was the continual and steady main source of China＇s economic growth, and the characteristic of be pulled by investment in China＇s economic growth was very obvious; The contribution to China＇s economic growth of TFP improvement has been reduced gradually, and it appeared negativevalue continually since 2002; The propulsion of China＇s economic growth changed from evenly pull by troika included capital, labor and TFP in prime of reform to reversed wrestle within capital and TFP at the present stage. If China want to step over middle income trap successfully in future, it is urgent demanded to speed up realize the transform that the dynamic mechanism of economic growth changes from be pulled by investment to be pulled by TFP. Hereto, we put forward relevant policy suggestion based on the cause discussion.
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第2期5-17,共13页
China Industrial Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"经济结构升级与经济体制转型中我国行业收入差距问题研究"(批准号12JJD790050)
中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目"行业垄断利益集团的危害及其规制"(批准号2012M510648)
关键词
经济增长
动力转换
投资拉动
TFP改进
economic growth
propulsion transform
pulled by investment
TFP improvement
