摘要
尾矿坝坝体的不均匀沉降可严重影响尾矿坝的稳定性,因此有效地预测坝体各监测点的垂直位移能够及时发现潜在的安全隐患,对尾矿库的安全管理与维护意义重大。尾矿坝作为一个多元的动态系统,其坝体位移存在很多的不确定性,是典型的灰色系统。本文以监测到的某尾矿坝垂直位移数据为原始数据序列,建立了GM(1,1)模型,对坝体各监测点的垂直位移进行了短期预测,预测结果显示其预测值与实际监测值基本吻合,表明GM(1,1)模型在尾矿坝垂直位移预测中具有较好的可靠性和适用性。
Differential settlement seriously affects the of tailings dam can be detected in time by pre tailings dam effectively, which is significant dic to tmg the stability of tailings dam. The potential safety hazards the vertical displacement of the monitoring points of management and maintenance of tailings dam. As a multi-dynamic system, the displacement of tailings dam has great uncertainty,which is a typical gray sys- tem. This paper takes the vertical displacement data from a tailings dam as the original data sequence to build GM（1,1） model and makes the short-term forecasts. The forecast results are similar to the actual mo- nitoring data and verify that the GM（1,1） grey forecasting model has good reliability and applicability in the prediction of the vertical displacement of tailings dam.
出处
《安全与环境工程》
CAS
北大核心
2013年第1期143-146,共4页
Safety and Environmental Engineering
