摘要
目的:预测湖北省荆州市子宫颈癌疾病死亡率趋势,为制定针对性的防治管理措施提供依据。方法:依据荆州市2002～2009年子宫颈癌的死亡率,应用灰色系统理论,建立子宫颈癌死亡率预测模型,进行预测研究。结果:求得荆州市子宫颈癌死亡率的预测模型为X(k+1)=-113.7842e-0.0 2 7 4 7R+117.0342,拟合检验显示本模型拟合精度为好,能够较好的预测子宫颈癌的死亡率。结论:荆州市子宫颈癌死亡率将继续呈下降趋势。
Objective. To predict the trend of mortality rate of cervical cancer in Jingzhou. Method： According to the mortality data of cervical cancer in Jingzhou from 2002 to 2009, the predicting model of cervical cancer was established by using grey system theory to predict mortality. Results： The grey model was X（K＋I）= -113. 7842e-0.022747R-k117. 0342. The goodness-of-fit test indicated that the precision was qualified and the grey model was capable in predicting the trend of mortality rate of cervical cancer. Conclu- sions：The predicting results indicate that the mortality rate of cervical cancer will continue to decrease
出处
《海南医学院学报》
CAS
2013年第1期92-95,共4页
Journal of Hainan Medical University
基金
中国高校医学期刊临床专项资金项目(112210491)~~
关键词
子宫颈癌
灰色系统理论
死亡率
预测
Grey system theory ~ Cervical cancer
Mortality rate
Predicting
