摘要
采用蒙特卡洛模型进行储量计算,承认储量参数具有不确定性。鉴于各地质参数本身的随机性特点,将其视为以不同概率在实数域上随机取值的随机变量,较好地掌握参数的取值范围。同时,结合CLFS项目储量计算实例,按照SPE标准,详细分析了具有较大不确定性参数的取值方法,包括含油面积、孔隙度、有效厚度、饱和度和原油体积系数等多个储量参数。确定了各个参数的取值范围,求出了各个参数的P10,P50和P90值。最终的储量结果是一个储量范围,涵盖了从保守到乐观的估值范围,从而更准确地把握了油田储量状况,为油田的勘探开发决策提供了更可靠的依据,降低了油气勘探开发过程中决策的风险。
The Monte Carlo simulation was applied to reserve calculations to honor the uncertainties of reserve parameters.As geologic parameters themselves are random in nature,they are treated as stochastic variables that randomly choose values in real number domain with different probabilities.Taking reserve calculation of the CLFS project as an example,suitable valuing methods were selected for parameters with uncertainties in accordance with the SPEC standards.These parameters include oil-bearing areas,porosity,effective thickness,saturation and crude volume coefficient.The value ranges of each parameter were determined and their values at P10,P50 and P90 were calculated.The final calculation result is just a range of reserves,covering the full value ranges from conservative to optimistic.By doing so,we could master the overall situation concerning the reserve of the oilfield so as to provide more reliable bases for exploration and development strategies and reduce decision-making risks.
出处
《石油与天然气地质》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第6期944-950,共7页
Oil & Gas Geology
基金
中国石化国勘横向项目(E60-00552)
关键词
概率分布函数
确定法
概率法
CLFS项目
储量计算
probability distribution function
deterministic method
probabilistic method
CLFS project
reserve calculation
