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油藏数值模拟在剩余油预测中的不确定性分析 被引量:25

Uncertainty analysis of remaining oil predicted with reservoir numerical simulation
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摘要 油藏数值模拟作为一种定量的剩余油饱和度预测方法 ,在油田开发后期剩余油分布研究中起着越来越重要的作用 ,但其预测精度也不可避免地受到多种因素的影响。对剩余油预测中油藏数值模拟精度的影响因素进行了分析 ,结果表明 ,地层对比的多解性、储层物性参数求取的不确定性以及储层非均质描述的局限性是影响数值模拟精度的主要地质因素。此外 ,相对渗透率曲线的选取、动态数据的获取及数值模拟软件本身都存在较大的不确定性 ,这些都会影响到油藏数值模拟的精度。因此 ,在剩余油研究过程中 ,不能过分依赖油藏数值模拟。应该综合运用地质、地震、测井、油藏工程、油藏数值模拟等多学科知识进行研究 ,以提高剩余油饱和度的预测精度。 As a quantitative method, reservoir numerical simulation has played a very important role in the prediction of remaining oil in the late period of oilfield development. However, the simulated result is always affected by many factors. The miss interpretation in stratigraphic correlation, uncertainty of reservoir parameters and the description limitation of reservoir heterogeneity are the main geologic factors affecting the accuracy of the reservoir simulation. The other factors, such as the reduction of reservoir heterogeneity in the transformation from geologic model to simulation model, the subjectivity in the selection of relative permeability curves and data acquirement, the limitation of software, can also affect the accuracy of simulation. The study of the remaining oil distribution should be independent of reservoir numerical simulation. The integration of geology, seismology, logging, reservoir engineering and reservoir simulation is favorable for enhancing the prediction accuracy of remaining oil saturation.
出处 《石油大学学报(自然科学版)》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2004年第3期22-24,29,共4页 Journal of the University of Petroleum,China(Edition of Natural Science)
基金 国家'973'基础发展规划项目 ( 19990 2 2 5 0 8)
关键词 油藏数值模拟技术 剩余油 预测方法 采收率 地层对比 储集层 reservoir numerical simulation remaining oil prediction remaining oil saturation enhanced oil recovery
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参考文献8

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