摘要
利用中天山北坡山区的3个测站1981～2010年的逐月平均气温、降水资料,运用线性回归分析、小波分析、Mann-Kendall突变分析等方法,对中天山北坡山区近30 a来气温和降水量的变化趋势、周期特征、突变特征进行分析。结果表明:气温、降水量均呈波动上升,中、高山带气温线性倾向率分别为0.74℃/10 a、0.60℃/10 a,降水量线性增加率为12.9 mm/10 a、39.0 mm/10 a,20世纪80年代中后期以来,降水增加尤为显著;秋季增暖趋势显著,冬季增暖速率最小,秋季增暖对全年的贡献率最大;降水量主要集中在夏季,高山带4季降水量均呈增加态势,夏季增加显著,而中山带夏季、秋季降水量呈弱的负趋势。中山带在2001年发生显著性的增温突变,而降水为波动性的变化过程,未出现显著的突变年份。气温、降水量存在3 a高频振荡周期以及6～7 a准周期。
Based on the monthly temperature and precipitation data in the northern piedmont of middle Tianshan Mountain from 1981 to 2010,the climate change trend was analyzed by using linear fitting method,Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis method.The results showed that temperature and precipitation presented increasing tendency with the rate of 0.74,0.60 ℃/10 a and 12.9,39.0 mm/10 a in the middle and the top of middle Tianshan Mountain,respectively.From the middle-later of the 1980s,precipitation increased significantly.It had an obviously warming trend in autumn,and precipitation mainly concentrated in summer and in four seasons it presented increasing trend in the high rejion of the middle Tianshan Mountain,and more significant in summer.However,precipitation in the middle region of the middle Tianshan Mountain showed a decreasing trend in summer and autumn.Air temperature appeared an abrupt increase in 2001 in the middle zone of the middle Tianshan Mountain.There were three years and six to seven years oscillation cycles for temperature and precipitation.
出处
《干旱气象》
2012年第4期575-582,共8页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金
新疆维吾尔自治区气象局青年基金项目(201132)资助
关键词
中天山
山区
气候
特征
突变
middle Tianshan Mountain
mountain area
climate
characteristic
abrupt change
