摘要
采用1953—2010年南岳高山站逐日气象资料,运用线性回归、突变分析和小波分析方法,对该站平均风速、气温和降水的气候变化特征进行了分析,并对与平均风速变化密切相关的气温和降水进行了年际变化特征比较.结果表明:1)年和四季平均风速均呈明显减小趋势,在20世纪90年代前后风速有由大到小的突变,年平均风速存在显著的准2 a和准4 a周期;2)年平均气温、最低气温、最高气温均呈明显升高趋势,气温存在显著的准2 a和准4 a周期,且于20世纪90年代中期前后气温有由偏低向偏高的突变;3)年降水量呈下降趋势,存在显著的准2 a和准3 a周期;4)风速与平均气温、最高气温和最低气温呈负相关关系,均通过0.01显著性检验,风速与降水的相关性没有通过显著性检验,但风速与降水的变化趋势在20世纪60年代中后期、70年代中期到21世纪初有较好的反相位变化.
Using the 1953—2010 meteorological records at the Nanyue mountain observatory,the climate change characteristics are analyzed using linear regression,Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis. In addition,the interannual variations of precipitation and temperature are comparatively analyzed which are related to mean wind speed closely. Results show that both annual and seasonal mean wind speed have obvious decreasing trends during the period analyzed,and abrupt descending changes occurred in the early 1990 s. Generally,the wind speeds had noticeable quasi-2-year and quasi-4-year periods. While the mean temperature,the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature show obvious increasing trends. In general,the temperature had noticeable quasi-2-year and qusi-4-year periods,and there are abrupt changes from low temperature to high temperature in the mid-1990 s. Precipitation had a decreasing trend. In general,the precipitation had significant quasi-2-year and quasi-3-year periods.There is a significant negative correlation between wind speed and mean temperature,maximum temperature and minimum temperature,all of which have passed the confidence test( p≤0. 01). The correlation coefficient between wind speed and precipitation does not pass the significance test,but the variations of wind speed and precipitation have anti-phase changes in the mid-1960 s,and the mid-1970 s until the beginning of 21 st century.
出处
《南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版)》
CAS
2015年第1期68-78,共11页
Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology(Natural Science Edition)
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYH Y201306016)