摘要
中国生育率在过去30年持续下降至较低水平,围绕下降的主要动因及其政策涵义的争论热烈。文章以"农村二孩"试点之一的翼城为案例,重新梳理和检视了在已有研究中较为忽视的翼城试点出台的背景和政策实施细则,并从多个方面考察了翼城生育政策对生育行为和生育意愿的影响。与已有研究对翼城试点的认识不同,政策文献回顾表明:"农村二孩"生育政策只是在初婚时间、生育子女数和生育间隔方面做出一些技术性"调整"以缓解国情与民情的矛盾,并没有实质性地改变实施计划生育这一基本国策的初衷。多维度数据分析交叉印证了在实施限制性的生育政策以后,社会经济发展变量不能解释生育率的下降,翼城现有生育行为和生育意愿更多是政策干预的结果,是政策促成的外生性转变,而非由于社会经济发展导致低生育意愿的内生性转变。
Over the last three decades, China＇ s fertility has declined consistently and substantially to the below - replacement level. Main forces shaping such fertility change and their impacts on the ad- justment of population - control policy have been debated in academic circles. Based on a careful study of a venerable two - child program in Yicheng County, which has been perceived as an unique case of birth -control experiment for almost thirty years, this paper demonstrates that the Yicheng program is an ＂adapted and adjusted＂ but tenacious continuity from the national population control process in terms of the timing of marriage, the number of children, and the childbearing interval. Fertility out- comes in Yicheng are largely a function of birth rationing, even though socioeconomic developments are given as part of the mixture of explanations for fertility decline.
出处
《人口研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第6期13-26,共14页
Population Research
关键词
翼城试点
“农村二孩”生育政策
生育率下降
The Yicheng Trial Program
The Conditional Two- Child Option
Fertilih/Decline
Birth -Control Policy
