摘要
通过加入情景规划法对传统新兴技术动态评估模型予以改变,改进后的模型能够更好地应对新兴技术的不确定性和复杂性。使用该模型对电动汽车技术进行评估,通过对电动汽车行业全面分析,找出关键驱动因素、关键驱动力等,以此构建电动汽车技术在未来发展可能出现的情景,并根据情景的变化提出相应的对策。同时详细地介绍该模型的优势和实用性。
By adding the scenario planning method on the change of traditional model of dynamic assessment of emerging technologies, the improved model could better deal with emerging technological uncertainty and complexity. The model can evaluate electric vehicle technology through a comprehensive analysis to identify KDFs, the key driving forces, etc. , in order to construct electric vehicle technology in the future development of possible scenarios. In accordance with the situation of change, it puts forward the eorresponding countermeasures and a detailed deseription of the advantages and practicality of the model.
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第23期93-98,共6页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"低碳经济环境下新能源汽车产业的技术轨道与创新绩效互动关系研究"(11BGL040)
关键词
情景规划
电动汽车技术
动态评估
scenario planning
eleetrie vehicle technology
dynamic assessment
