摘要
受分裂主义和极端民族主义浪潮驱动,近年来,恐怖活动愈加猖獗,对世界各国国家安全构成了严重威胁。分析恐怖袭击时空规律对于准确把握当前恐怖活动态势从而科学地预防和打击恐怖犯罪具有重要的现实意义。本文研究了1970年以来部分国家的恐怖袭击事件时间分布情况,并使用自激点过程模型进行了拟合。结果显示,自激点过程模型可以较好地拟合恐怖袭击事件趋势特征,反映短期内恐怖活动烈度。
Spurred by separatism and ultra-nationalism, terrorism has been greatly intensified over the past few years and is being a serious threat both to homeland security and civilians＇ personal safety, which lends special significance to the analysis of terrorist attack patterns. In this paper, we studied the time series of terrorist attacks in several countries since 1970 and modeled the temporal distribution with a self-exciting point process（ Hawkes process）. Our study will be an im- portant reference for anti-terrorism efforts.
出处
《军事医学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第10期750-753,共4页
Military Medical Sciences
关键词
恐怖活动
自激点过程
时间分布
terrorism
self-exciting point process
temporal distribution
