摘要
[目的/意义]构建数学模型研究网络话题传播规律建模和预测问题,为深入研究网络话题传播规律提供理论参考。[方法/过程]定性分析网络话题传播的大数据特征、可量化性、可度量周期性、可预测性等特征,通过分析网络话题传播机理,构建网络话题传播规律的常态模型和衍生模型,提出划分网络话题传播阶段的一般方法,并据此研究网络话题传播趋势预测方法。[结论/结果]通过"雾霾"微博话题数据开展实证分析,能够较好地划分传播阶段并预测传播趋势,由此,根据本文构建的数学模型研究网络话题传播规律是可行的。
[Purpose/Significance]The mathematical model was constructed to study the modeling and prediction of network topic dissemination law,in order to provide theoretical references for further research on the dissemination law of network topic.[Method/Process]This paper qualitatively analyzed the characteristics of big data,quantifiability,measurable periodicity,predictability and other characteristics of network topic dissemination.Through the analysis of network topic dissemination mechanism,the normal model and derivative model of network topic dissemination law were constructed.The general method of dividing the stages of network topic dissemination was put forward and the trend prediction of network topic dissemination was studied.[Result/Conclusion]Through empirical analysis of microblog topic data of"haze",the dissemination stages could be well divided and the dissemination trend could be predicted.Therefore,it was feasible to study the network topic dissemination law based on the mathematical model established in this paper.
作者
夏一雪
Xia Yixue(China People's Police University,Langfang 065000,China)
出处
《现代情报》
CSSCI
2019年第4期3-12,共10页
Journal of Modern Information
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"面对舆情大数据的突发事件民意分析与决策支持研究"(项目编号:17CXW015)
关键词
网络话题
网络舆情
传播规律
趋势预测
network topic
network public opinion
dissemination law
trend prediction
