摘要
承接前期区域承载力的研究,首先对延龙图地区2000—2009年的统计数据利用灰色系统模型对该区域的承载力进行计算分析和动态预测。结果表明,延龙图地区2000—2009年的发展仍处于该区域的承载能力范围之内,然而该地区自2005年之后,迎来了新一轮的快速发展阶段,经济的快速发展和环境日趋恶化压力的增大都很明显,但是仍处于可载状态;延龙图地区2000—2009年期间尽管后期进入了快速发展的阶段,但未来仍有20余年的发展空间,预测结果显示,2030年,延龙图地区的发展将可能出现超载。
Based on previous research,continue to the study on regional carrying capacity.Analysised the statistical data from 2000 to 2009 in Yan-long-tu Area.Meanwhile,calculated and predicted the regional carrying capacity by using model of grey system theory.The results showed that the development from 2000 to 2009 is still within the scope of carrying capacity.Since 2005,the area developed fast.The pressure of rapid economic growth and environmental deterioration increases significantly.However,it still can be carried.The dynamic simulation and predation results showed that from 2000 to 2009,although the area developed rapidly in later period,it still has 20 years＇ development space,that is,in 2030,the development of Yan-long-tu Area maybe overloaded.To conclude,these results indicated that the factors of unsustainable development still follows the regional development of Yan-long-tu Area.
出处
《延边大学农学学报》
2012年第3期197-201,共5页
Agricultural Science Journal of Yanbian University
基金
国家自然基金项目(40961011)
2010年吉林省教育厅科技计划研究项目资助
关键词
延龙图地区
区域承载力
可持续发展
Yan-long-tu Regions
Regional Carrying Capacity
Sustainable development
