摘要
环渤海地区目前资源环境负荷已处于过载状态 ,成为制约今后全区经济社会发展的主要限制性因素。从实施可持续发展战略出发 ,采用定量方法研究该区的资源环境综合承载力 ,并对其今后变化的趋势进行了预测 。
Bohai Rim, one of the developed and urbanized regions in China, plays an important role in the new century development. Now the load on the regional resource and environment has been over carried which has been one of the main restrictive factors for the future socioeconomic development in this region. After retrospection of the previous research methods on regional carrying capacity at home and abroad, this paper takes the state space as a basic method to measure regional carrying capacity on account of implementing regional sustainable development strategy. It does quantitative evaluation of regional carrying capacity by building an index system. The conclusions are as follows. The carrying status of resource and environment was over loaded from 1994 to 1998 in this region. Seriously inadequate per capita possession of water resource and utilizable water decreasing caused by pollution are main restrictive factors. Furthermore serious shortage of water resource has close relationship with furious speed extensive economic development pattern. In view of the above mentioned conclusions, this paper simulates and forecasts the regional carrying capacity and status by the agency of system dynamics. The general trend is briefed below. The over loaded tendency remains as before, but the carrying status of each time is evolving toward better. It is forecasted that the carrying status will approach the carrying capacity in the year 2015 which shows this region will develop from weaker to stronger sustainable direction. According to this forecast, the authors raise four countermeasures as follows: (1) economic countermeasure: seeking continuous, moderate and coordinated economic growth and adjusting the industrial structure and location; (2) resource countermeasure: adopting the principle of increasing income and decreasing expenditure for shortage resources and building the regulation of utilizing resource upon consideration; (3) environmental countermeasure: strictly executing the total emission control of poll
出处
《地理学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第3期363-371,共9页
Acta Geographica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目!( 49971 0 37)
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所知识创新工程领域前沿项目!( CXZOG-B0 0 -0 4)&&
