摘要
为了持续改进民航安全,本文对中美两国民航运输事故趋势进行了分析研究。对民航运输事故率的统计采样周期、变化规律的曲线类型进行研究,并基于5年为采样周期、滚动平均的数据建立回归分析模型。利用此模型对中美两国的运输飞行事故率和亿客公里死亡人数进行曲线拟合。最后,对比分析中美两国的事故率和亿客公里死亡人数拟合值。研究表明中美两国民航事故率遵循相似的规律发展,中国民航安全改进速度更快。依据研究结果,预测在2014年中国民航运输飞行重大事故率大约是美国的1/3、亿客公里死亡人数大约是美国的2倍,分析表明美国民航事故水平很大程度受小型运输机制约,指出随着我国大力发展支线航空,可能会带来航空事故的高发期。
In order to continuously improve civil aviation safety,a research was done to analyze the accident trend between China and America.The statistical sampling period and curve types of civil aviation transportation accident rate were researched firstly,and then,a regression analysis model was constructed based on the rolling average data which the sampling period was 5 years.After that,this model was used to research the fitted curves of air transportation accident rate and passenger fatality per hundred million passenger-kilometers（PFPK）.Finally,comparative analysis of fitted values of transportation accident rate and PFPK was made between China and America.The research showed that the trend of transportation accident rate between China and America is similar,and civil aviation safety is improved faster.According to the research results,the civil aviation transportation accident of China in 2014 is about one-third of that of America.Meanwhile,PFPK in China is about 2 times of that in America.This means that civil aviation accident level is largely influenced by small aircrafts,and at the same time,with the vigorous development of regional air transport in China,the aviation accident peak period may come soon.
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
2012年第9期154-158,共5页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划("973"计划)项目(编号:2010CB734105)
