摘要
2008年全球金融危机以来,欧洲、美国和新兴市场三大板块的再平衡呈现出明显分化特征,其新特点可概括为:欧洲正在殴,美国将更美,金砖要贴金。美国实体经济未受重创,金融和居民的资产负债表修复较快,以及其低资金成本、低能源价格、向低走的劳动力成本、技术和市场等优势,使得美国经济具备了再出发的基本条件,尽管短期风险尤存。欧元区去杠杆化刚刚开始,加之欧元区在制度设计上未能形成主权和货币之间的统一,将使其金融机构和实体经济经历漫长而痛苦的去杠杆化和政治磨合过程。这个过程可能要十年以上,欧元区正在变成下一个日本。同时,欧元区可能出现新的资本管制,形成一个货币但多个汇率、多个利率的机制。新兴市场国家面临全球化和改革红利减退的挑战,经济增速在下滑,部分新兴市场国家未来两三年可能会面临非常严重的资金短缺和金融危机。金砖国家以及广大的发展中国家,未来需要进行更大力度的改革。
Since the eruption of the global financial crisis in 2008,the world has witnessed an apparent divergence of economic trends in Europe,the US and the emerging market economies.While the divergence of economic trends in Europe,the US and the emerging market economies.While the situation is getting worse in Europe,the US has a more promising future and the emerging market economies need to find a path to regain high-rate growth.The real side of the US economy has not been severely damaged and the US financial and household balance sheets have been largely repaired at a fast pace.The US will see its economic growth accelerate as it boasts low financing costs,low energy prices,declining labor costs,and advantages in technology and markets,despite the short-term headwind,mainly the fiscal cliff.Since the deleveraging process in Europe has just started and due to the flawed design of the eurozone system,which has failed to unify national sovereignty and monetary policy,the eurozone will have to go through a long and painful period of economic deleveraging and political coordination.The eurozone may renew capital control and form a mechanism in which one currency coexists with multiple exchange rates and benchmark interest rates.This process might take more than 10 years: The eurozone is becoming the next Japan.The emerging market economies may face severe challenges of waning globalization and reform dividends and decelerating economic growth.We could see severe capital outflow and even financial crisis in some emerging market economies over the next two or three years.They,including the BRICS(Brazil,Russia,India,China and South Africa),need to expedite and deepen their reforms.
出处
《国际经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第5期9-30,4,共22页
International Economic Review
