摘要
根据三峡库区望霞危岩体的实际情况,采用指数平滑法对部分监测点位移进行了试验性建模,并对预测结果进行验证,预测结果表明,该方法具有较高的精度。在裂缝相对位移监测点资料的基础上,结合望霞危岩体破坏特点,提出了一个利用平滑系数来判断危岩体不同监测点的稳定性的概念模型,该模型可对预测危岩临滑时间提供权重大小,以提高危岩失稳时间预测的精度。
In light of the actual condition of Wangxia dangerous rock in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, the displacement of some observation points are predicted and modeled experimentally and confirmatorily by using the exponential smoothing. The re- suits show that this model is with high - precision; a conceptive model, by which the stability of dangerous rock mass at different points can be judged with the use of a smooth coefficient and the weight in predicting the sliding time of dangerous rock can be provided, based on the data of relative displacement of cracks at observation points, together with the characteristics of Wangxia dangerous rock failure, which provides a new method and thought to improve the predicting theory of failure time of dangerous rock.
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2012年第17期35-38,共4页
Yangtze River
关键词
指数平滑法
危岩
预测模型
三峡库区
exponential smoothing
dangerous rock
prediction model
Three Gorges Reservoir Area
