摘要
通过构建VAR模型对我国第三产业发展与就业增长的关系进行了实证研究。协整分析表明第三产业与就业增长之间存在着长期协同互动关系。VAR模型及脉冲响应函数的动态分析表明我国第三产业发展表现为相互促进的累积过程;劳动力投入是影响第三产业发展的重要因素,就业人数的增长对第三产业发展有巨大的推动作用;第三产业具有很大的就业吸纳空间。最后根据就业吸纳弹性来阐明第三产业发展对劳动力的吸纳能力并提出相应的政策建议。
This paper takes an empirical study on the relationship between China＇s tertiary industry development and employment growth by building a VAR model. Cointegration analysis shows that there is a longterm cooperative interaction between the tertiary industry and employment growth. VAR model and impulse response function analysis shows that the development of tertiary industry in our country is a cumulative process. Labor input is an important factor in the development d tertiary industry; and employment growth plays an important role in promoting the third industry development. The tertiary industry makes a great oontribufion to absorb employment. Finally,clarify the ability of tertiary industry to absorb the labor force according to employment elasticity and make appropriate policy recommenda- tion.
出处
《工业技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第8期140-145,共6页
Journal of Industrial Technological Economics
关键词
第三产业
就业增长
VAR模型
脉冲响应
就业弹性
tertiary industry
employment growth
VAR model
impulse response
employment elasticity
