摘要
面对不断变化的未来不确定作战环境,在有限资源和技术水平下,武器装备体系顶层设计人员需要辨识与明确对体系建设目标影响最大的能力集合。提出用带置信度的区间数度量武器装备体系能力,用beta分布描述武器装备体系能力性能指标先验分布概率,在武器装备体系能力指标分解结构基础上构建了基于贝叶斯网络的武器装备体系能力重要度评估模型,利用贝叶斯网络的推理功能提出了能力重要度计算方法。最后,以空战武器装备体系为背景对所提方法的可行性和有效性进行了检验。
Facing on the continual changing of future combat conditions, the designer of weaponry system of systems (WSoS) needs to identify and recognize the capability set which is important to significant improvement in SoS effectiveness under limited resources and restricted technology. Using an interval number with confidence to measure WSoS capability and using beta distribution to picture the prior distribution of WSoS performance in- dex are proposed. A WSoS capability weightiness degree analyzing model is constructed based on Bayesian net- work theory and WSoS capability index break-down structure, and a calculating method of capability weighti- ness degree by Bayesian inference is proposed. The result indicates that the proposed model is an effective analy- sis tool for WSoS capability weightiness degree.
出处
《系统工程与电子技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第8期1605-1612,共8页
Systems Engineering and Electronics
基金
国家自然科学基金(70901074
70971131
71001104
71031007)资助课题
关键词
武器装备体系
重要度
能力
贝叶斯网络
BETA分布
weaponry system-of-systems (WSoS)
weightiness degree
capability
Bayesian network (BN)
beta distribution