摘要
灌溉工程方案的优选受到自然资源、技术水平、环境影响、社会经济等因素的制约,是一个包含有众多不确定性的复杂过程。在分析鄂尔多斯市现状水资源开发利用程度和考虑节水灌溉研究成果的基础上,选取技术、资源、环境、经济、社会5个一级指标及其下属的28个二级指标,建立灌溉工程方案优选模型,接着确定各指标影响下不同决策的合适程度,并建立相应的知识矩阵,最后采用DS合成规则融合各知识矩阵的基本概率分布,研究结果表明,鄂尔多斯市灌溉工程方案最优程度由高至低依次是卷盘式喷灌、大型时针式喷灌、移动式喷灌、低压管道灌溉。
The optimal selection of irrigation systems is a complex process that contains lots of uncertainty factors, such as the influ- ence of natural resources, technical level, the environment, economic and social conditions. By analyzing the present water resources utilization of Ordos City and considering the available research achievement of water-saving irrigation, this paper selects technology, resources, environment, economy, society as the primary indexes that contain its 28 subordinate secondary indexes, establishes irri- gation systems optimization model, then determines the appropriate value of decision under the effects of different indexes and estab- lishes a corresponding knowledge matrix. At last, DS combination rule is used to calculate the optimal value of different knowledge matrix＇s basic probability assignment, and the research results show that the optimal value of Ordos City from high to low in turn are reeling sprinkler irrigation, large clockwise sprinkler irrigation, mobile sprinkler irrigation, low pressure pipe irrigation.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2012年第8期30-33,共4页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
关键词
证据理论
DS合成规则
灌溉工程方案优选
evidence theory DS combination rule optimal selection of irrigation systems
