摘要
利用吉木乃县1961—2010年的积温和小麦产量资料,对日平均气温稳定通过0℃、10℃的初日、终日、初终间日数、积温的变化特征进行了分析;运用相关分析法探讨了生长期积温对小麦产量的影响。结果表明:近50 a吉木乃县的积温变化是明显的,积温显著增多,≥0℃积温变率为83.7℃/10 a,≥10℃积温变率为57.5℃/10 a;稳定通过0℃和10℃界限温度初日提前、终日推后,初终间日数呈增加的趋势。春夏季积温与春小麦产量的相关关系显著,当0℃积温距平每增加1℃时,小麦产量将增加0.15%;当10℃积温距平每增加1℃时,产量将增加0.12%。积温增加使小麦冻害减轻,但干旱、干热风危害加大。
Based on the accumulated temperature and the wheat yield data in Jimunai from 1961 to 2010,the variation of the first and the last dates,day number from the first date to the last date and the accumulated temperature when daily mean temperature was above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃ were analyzed.The impacts of accumulated temperature on wheat yield were demonstrated by the method of correlation analysis.It was found that：（1）the accumulated temperature increased remarkably in Jimunai during the past 50 years;the accumulated temperature above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃ rose 83.7 ℃/10 a and 57.5 ℃/10 a;（2）the first day came earlier and the last day came later for each critical temperature as the accumulated temperature passed above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃;（3）day number from the first date to the last date above 0 ℃ and 10 ℃ increased.The accumulated temperature in spring and summer had a significant correlation with the spring wheat yield.The spring wheat yield increased 0.15% when the accumulative temperature above 0 ℃ increased 1 ℃;the spring wheat yield increased 0.12% when the accumulative temperature above 10 ℃ increased 1 ℃;although the freeze-injury reduced due to the accumulative temperature increased,the damage by drought and dry-hot wind increased.
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2012年第3期70-74,共5页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
关键词
界限温度
积温
特征分析
小麦产量
相关分析
critical temperature
accumulated temperature
characteristic analysis
wheat yield
correlation analysis
