摘要
根据新源县气象站1982—2018年冬小麦生育期、产量及同期气温、降水、日照时数资料,采用线性回归、pearson相关系数、3 a直线滑动平均等统计方法,研究了近37 a来新源县冬小麦对气候变化的响应。结果表明:近37 a来新源县冬小麦冬前生育期显著推迟,返青至乳熟期显著提前,春、夏季生育期提前主要受3月上、中旬气温影响。出苗—越冬开始期显著缩短、乳熟—成熟期显著延长,其它各生育期间隔无显著变化,全生育期缩短是由播种期显著推迟造成的。冬小麦气候产量与营养生长期的气象要素显著相关。播种期显著推迟导致冬前的热量积累不足,建议播种期提前10 d左右,利于形成壮苗。
Based on the data of growth period,yield,temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours of winter wheat during 1982—2018 from Xinyuan station,the response of winter wheat to climate change in Xinyuan county in recent 37 years was studied by using linear regression,Pearson correlation coefficient,3 a linear moving average and other statistical methods.The results showed that in recent 37 years the pre-winter growth period of winter wheat in Xinyuan County was significantly delayed,the stage from turning green to milk maturity was significantly advanced.The growth period in spring and summer were mainly affected by the temperature in early and mid-March.The stage of emergence to the beginning of overwintering was shortened significantly,and the stage of milk ripening to maturity was significantly prolonged.There was no significant change in the interval between other growth stages.The whole growth period was shortened because the sowing date was significantly delayed.The climatic yield of winter wheat was significantly correlated with the meteorological elements during the vegetative growth stage.Significant delay in sowing date led to insufficient heat accumulation before winter.It is suggested that sowing date should be about 10 days earlier,which is conducive to forming strong seedlings.
作者
严华
马玉平
晏中文
YAN Hua;MA Yuping;YAN Zhongwen(Xinyuan Meteorological Bureau,Xinyuan 835800,China;Yili Meteorological Bureau,Yining 835000,China)
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2021年第2期131-137,共7页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
基金
伊犁州气象局科研课题(KT-202003)。
关键词
新源县
冬小麦
气候变化
生育期
气候产量
Xinyuan county
winter wheat
climate change
growth period
climatic yield
