摘要
长期以来水资源的合理利用关系着民勤绿洲的经济、生态、社会效益.对民勤绿洲1956-2009年的水资源承载产值进行分析,确定自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA),预测得到民勤绿洲2010-2015年水资源承载产值.结果表明:建立的ARIMA模型是有效的,预测值是可信赖的.
For a long time, the rational utilization of water resources has influenced Minqin economic, ecological and social benefits. On the basis of analyzing Minqin value of output related to water resource from 1956 to 2009, the appropriate autoregressive intergrated moving average model （ARIMA） is determined and the value of output related to water resource in Minqin from 2010 to 2015 is predicted. The results show that the ARIMA model is effective and the forecast data can be trusted.
出处
《兰州交通大学学报》
CAS
2012年第3期177-181,共5页
Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University
关键词
时间序列ARIMA水资源承载产值
预测
time series
ARIMA
value of output related to water resource
prediction
