摘要
以1978～2007年福建省的人口统计数据为依据,采用饱和增长趋势模型中的修正指数模型、龚柏兹模型、逻辑斯蒂模型对福建省未来人口总量进行预测。根据预测结果进一步用三种模型进行组合得到组合预测模型,预测结果为2010年、2015年、2020年福建省人口总量分别达到:3654.93万人、3752.83万人、3832.61万人。
Based on the population statistics in Fujian Province form 1978 to 2007, this paper first projects the total population of Fujian Province in the near future years using three saturated growth models which are the improved exponential model, Compertz model and Logistic model. Then the three models are combined to form a combined projecting model according to the projected results. The total population in 2010, 2015 and 2020 will be 36.5493 million, 37.5283 million and 38.3261 million respectively.
出处
《龙岩学院学报》
2009年第3期82-85,共4页
Journal of Longyan University
关键词
人口预测
福建省
修正指数模型
龚柏兹模型
逻辑斯蒂模型
population projection
Fujian Province
improved exponential model
compertz model
logistic model
