摘要
本文通过建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,研究了经济增长、环境质量和能源消费三者之间的长期均衡关系,并对未来五年的二氧化碳排放量、能源消费量和GDP进行了动态预测。建立了经济发展的能源需求模型和环境约束下的能源消费模型,得出经济产出、能源消费及能源强度三个变量之间及二氧化碳排放量、能源消费及碳强度三个变量之间的长期均衡关系,在此基础上预测未来五年我国能源最优消费量数据。
This paper establishes the VAR model to study a long-run equilibrium relationship among economic growth, environmental quality and energy consumption, and predicts China energy consumption, GDP and total carbon dioxide emissions in the next five years. The relationship among economic output, energy consumption and energy intensity, and the relationship among carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and carbon intensity are found. On this base, it predicts the optimal energy consumption in the next five years.
出处
《中国能源》
2012年第5期35-38,共4页
Energy of China
关键词
经济增长
环境约束
能源消费
Economic growth
Environmental constraints
Energy consumption
