摘要
为弥补港口吞吐量同比指数的不足,采用季节调整方法对我国沿海港口吞吐量环比指数进行研究.在分析沿海港口吞吐量季节性特征基础上,利用X-12-ARIMA程序进行季节调整.针对我国的实际情况,引入春节模型对季节调整程序进行改进,消除春节效应的影响,并将季节调整后吞吐量环比增长率与原序列同比增长率进行比较.结果表明,季节调整后的吞吐量环比指数领先同比指数,能够准确反映水运经济的变化趋势,及时发现水运运行中的转折点,为我国水运运行预警与政府决策提供参考依据.
In order to overcome the shortcomings of year-based index of port throughput,the seasonal adjustment method was used to study the chain index of coastal port throughput in China.X-12-ARIMA was applied to adjust the seasonal effect based on the analysis of seasonal features of coastal port throughput.According to the domestic status,the spring festival model was adopted to improve the seasonal adjustment method and eliminate the impacts of festival factors.The monthly chain growth rate was calculated and compared with the original year-based growth rate by using the seasonally adjusted data.Results show that the seasonally adjusted chain index exceeds the year-based index,which reflects the trends of water transportation economy accurately and finds its inflexions in time,and thus it can provide references for precaution and government＇s decision-making in waterway transportation operation.
出处
《大连海事大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第1期55-58,共4页
Journal of Dalian Maritime University
